Point Calculations & Snapshots
On Predict, days are split into short phases of random durations. A grand total of 5,000,000 points are awarded every day, evenly distributed across these phases. Each phase’s point distribution can be calculated as follows:
(Where X is the number of seconds in the phase)
These per-phase points are allocated to each market based on an internal calculation, finalized by a snapshot taken at the end of the period. Suppose that, in a given five-minute phase (~17,361 points to distribute), four markets exist with the following point splits assigned:
Market A: 50%
Market B: 10%
Market C: 25%
Market D: 15%
Points for this period are allocated as follows:
Market A: 0.50 x 17,361 = ~8,681 points
Market B: 0.10 x 17,361 = ~1,736 points
Market C: 0.25 x 17,361 = ~4,340 points
Market D: 0.15 x 17,361 = ~2,604 points
To keep things balanced, each phase's points are evenly split across two buckets:
YES bids and NO asks: 50%
YES asks and NO bids: 50%
In the case of Market A above, YES bids/NO asks would be eligible for 4,340 points for that phase.
Who Earns Points?
Anyone can earn points, but their eligibility depends on their proximity to the highest bid or lowest ask. Put simply, only the five highest bids and five lowest asks at each snapshot will accrue points.
If a market’s spread exceeds a certain threshold (which varies from market to market), no points will be earned! You can find out whether points are active on a given market by viewing the spread on its order book.
To activate rewards, reduce the spread by placing limit orders.
Depending on where their bid/ask sits in this hierarchy, users will receive a multiplier. Note that, beyond these positions, users will receive no points.
For bids:
100x [highest bid]
5x
3x
2x
1x [lowest bid]
For asks:
100x [lowest ask]
5x
3x
2x
1x [highest ask]
To be considered in a given phase, a bid/ask must be live for more than five minutes. Additionally, the more USDB liquidity added, the greater the points reward.
Let's illustrate with a quick example of a YES-bid order book for a given phase:
12¢ (order value: $2,000) by Alice
11.9¢ (order value: $1,800) by Bob
10.5¢ (order value: $10,000) by Carol
10.4¢ (order value: $100,000) by Dean
10¢ (order value: $50,000) by Ellie
9.9¢ (order value: $1,000,000) by Freddy
Remember, a total of ~8,681 points is available here (assuming this is the only market), to be distributed proportionate to each participant's 'score':
Alice's has a 100x multiplier on her $2,000 – giving her a score of 200,000
Bob has a 5x multiplier on his $1,800 — giving him a score of 9,000
Carol has a 3x multiplier on her $10,000 — giving her a score of 30,000
Dean has a 2x multiplier on his $100,000 – giving him a score of 200,000
Ellie has a 1x multiplier on her $50,000 – giving her a score of 50,000
Freddy receives no multiplier – and, therefore, has a score of zero.
For instance, as Alice scores 200,000 out of a total of 489,000, she’ll earn (200,000 ÷ 489,000) x 8,681 or ~3,551 points.
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