> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.predict.fun/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.predict.fun/the-predict-international/full-rules-and-reference.md).

# Full Rules and Reference

The complete rules for The Predict International: markets, Activity Points, qualification requirements, the leaderboard, and reward pools.

## Full Rules and Reference

### The Predict International: Full Rules and Reference

This is the complete reference for The Predict International activity on Predict.fun.

It serves to answer detailed questions about how markets, Activity Points, qualification, the leaderboard, prize pools, and payouts work. Looking for a general overview? Head over here first and return to this page for the specifics.

The document below outlines the standard design for the activity. Live pools, market cards, and your qualification status are always shown in the app, and the app is the source of truth for any given match.

#### 1. The Big Picture

The Predict International runs alongside The International 2026 (TI 2026), Dota 2's biggest tournament, held August 13–23 in Shanghai. You don't pick a single team to follow — instead, you predict on any match, for any team, across the whole event.

Here is the full loop, end to end:

1. Predict.fun lists a card of markets for every TI 2026 match (five match-level markets, plus First Blood and Kill Totals markets for each individual game in that match).
2. You make your predictions by buying and locking a position in each market you want to play.
3. When a market resolves, every market you qualified on and got right pays you a fixed amount of Activity Points (AP).
4. Your AP stacks on a single, tournament-wide leaderboard alongside every other player.
5. Rewards are paid out in two phases — Group Stage and Final — to the top 1,000 ranked players at each snapshot.
6. Your AP carries forward from the Group Stage phase into the Final phase, so nothing resets mid-event.

There is **100,000 USDT and 5,000,000 Predict Points** in total rewards across the activity, funded entirely by Predict.fun.

{% hint style="info" %}
You don't need to remain loyal to a single team in The Predict International. The more markets you participate in, across as many matches as you like, the greater your AP-earning potential.
{% endhint %}

#### 2. Tournament Structure

The Predict International mirrors the structure of TI 2026 itself:

| **Stage**                     | **Format**      | **Dates**       |
| ----------------------------- | --------------- | --------------- |
| Group Stage (Swiss)           | All matches Bo3 | Aug 13 – Aug 16 |
| Elimination Round             | Bo3             | Aug 13 – Aug 16 |
| Playoffs (double elimination) | Bo3             | Aug 20 – Aug 23 |
| Grand Final                   | Bo5             | Aug 20 – Aug 23 |

Predict.fun lists markets for every match at every stage. The market list and AP values are the same regardless of stage — what changes is only how many games a match can run to (up to 3 games for a Bo3, up to 5 for the Bo5 Grand Final).

#### 3. The Markets

Every match has a card of markets to predict. There are two types: **match-level markets**, which resolve once per match regardless of how many games it takes, and **per-game markets**, which resolve separately for each individual game played.

**3.1 Match-level markets**

| Market        | Option A       | Option B       |
| ------------- | -------------- | -------------- |
| Match Winner  | Team A         | Team B         |
| Game 1 Winner | Team A         | Team B         |
| Game 2 Winner | Team A         | Team B         |
| Total Games   | Over 2.5       | Under 2.5      |
| Game Handicap | Team A \[Line] | Team B \[Line] |

**3.2 Per-game markets**

Listed for Game 1 and Game 2 of every match. For matches that go longer (a Bo3 decider game, or Games 3–5 of the Bo5 Grand Final), the same two markets are listed again for each additional game played.

| Market      | Option A     | Option B      |
| ----------- | ------------ | ------------- |
| First Blood | Team A       | Team B        |
| Kill Totals | Over \[Line] | Under \[Line] |

{% hint style="warning" %}
**Group Stage and Elimination Round exception:** on Bo3 matches in these stages, First Blood and Kill Totals markets are only listed for Games 1 and 2 — a third (decider) game, if played, does not carry its own markets. From the Playoffs onward, every game played gets its own First Blood and Kill Totals markets, including Games 3–5 of the Bo5 Grand Final.
{% endhint %}

*Exact lines (goal/kill/game totals, handicaps) are set per match and always shown on the market card in the app.*

#### 4. Earning Activity Points

Every market on the card is worth a fixed number of Activity Points (AP) if you qualify and your prediction is correct.

**4.1 AP by market - Group Stage & Elimination rounds**

| Market                 | AP (if correct) |
| ---------------------- | --------------- |
| Match Winner           | 6,000           |
| Game 1 Winner          | 5,000           |
| Game 2 Winner          | 5,000           |
| Total Games            | 4,000           |
| Game Handicap          | 4,000           |
| First Blood (per game) | 4,000           |
| Kill Totals (per game) | 4,000           |

**4.2 AP by market - Playoffs**

| Market                 | AP (if correct) |
| ---------------------- | --------------- |
| Match Winner           | 30,000          |
| Game 1 Winner          | 25,000          |
| Game 2 Winner          | 25,000          |
| Total Games            | 20,000          |
| Game Handicap          | 20,000          |
| First Blood (per game) | 20,000          |
| Kill Totals (per game) | 20,000          |

**4.3 Maximum AP per match**

For a standard Bo3 match in the Group Stage or Elimination Round (Games 1 and 2 only carry per-game markets):

| Component                                  | AP         |
| ------------------------------------------ | ---------- |
| Match-level markets (5 markets)            | 24,000     |
| Game 1 markets (First Blood + Kill Totals) | 8,000      |
| Game 2 markets (First Blood + Kill Totals) | 8,000      |
| **Total**                                  | **40,000** |

For Playoff and Grand Final matches, the maximum grows with every additional game played, since each extra game adds its own First Blood and Kill Totals markets. **AP values for these additional games (Games 3–5) are TBA** and will be confirmed before the Playoffs begin.

**4.3 How points accumulate**

Activity Points are credited automatically after a market resolves in your favor. There is no claim step. Your total simply grows as matches play out, and your position on the leaderboard updates with it.

Points are only ever earned on markets where you meet all of the qualification requirements below. A correct prediction that did not qualify earns nothing.

#### 5. Qualifying for a Market

To make sure Activity Points reward real trading and not just clicking, each market has three requirements. You must meet all three on a given market for it to count.

**5.1 The three requirements**

1. **Buy and lock a position before the match begins.** Choose the option you believe will be correct, hold at least 20 shares of it, and lock that selection in before the relevant match/game kicks off.
2. **Hold the position at resolution.** You must be holding at least 20 shares of your locked option when the market resolves. You are free to trade in between, including selling and buying back, as long as you are holding the minimum at both lock-in and resolution.
3. **Win.** Your locked option must be the correct one.

If you miss any of the three, that market's Activity Points are not credited, even if your prediction turns out to be correct.

**5.2 No single-transaction requirement**

The 20 shares can be bought across transactions (e.g., 10 shares followed by 10 shares), provided they're locked via the activity page prior to the match starting.

Splitting USDT into shares will not count.

**5.3 Locking more shares**

20 shares is a minimum threshold, not a multiplier. Each market awards a fixed number of Activity Points, and each market pays once per user, so locking 200 shares earns the same as locking 20.

**5.4 The lock lifecycle**

* **Before the match begins:** You can select an option, lock it, unlock it, and switch to a different option as many times as you like. Nothing is final until the match starts. If you're holding fewer than 20 shares of your selected option, the Lock button stays disabled and the card shows a BUY prompt instead.
* **At kickoff:** Your locked selection becomes final for that market. You can no longer switch options or unlock.
* **During the match:** You can keep trading. If your holding drops below the minimum, the market will show a warning that you are not currently eligible. You can buy back above the minimum any time before the market resolves to restore eligibility.
* **At resolution:** The system checks that you are holding the minimum and that your locked option won. If both are true, your Activity Points are credited automatically.

{% hint style="info" %}
Watch your position during the match. If you sell below the minimum and do not buy back before the market resolves, you lose that market's Activity Points even if your pick was correct. The activity page shows your live qualification status for every market, so you always know where you stand.
{% endhint %}

#### 6. The Leaderboard

The Predict International has a single, tournament-wide Activity Points leaderboard — there is no per-team leaderboard.

* **Live and automatic.** As each market resolves, your points are credited and the board re-ranks instantly. There is no claim step.
* **What you see.** The Leaderboard and My Points tabs show your live rank and AP total at all times.
* **Only the top 1,000 are paid.** Each phase's prize pool is split among the top 1,000 ranks on the leaderboard at that phase's snapshot (see sections 7 and 8).

**6.1 Ties**

If two or more players finish on exactly the same number of Activity Points, there is no tiebreaker. They jointly occupy the consecutive ranks they span, and they split the combined rewards of those ranks equally.

#### 7. Reward Pools

Predict.fun funds a fixed prize pool for each of the two reward phases, for a total of **100,000 USDT and 5,000,000 Predict Points**.

**7.1 The schedule**

| **Phase**           | **Pool**                   | **Dates**       | **Paid out after**              |
| ------------------- | -------------------------- | --------------- | ------------------------------- |
| Group Stage Rewards | 25,000 USDT + 1,000,000 PP | Aug 13 – Aug 16 | Group Stage + Elimination Round |
| Final Rewards       | 75,000 USDT + 4,000,000 PP | Aug 20 – Aug 23 | The Bo5 Grand Final             |

**7.2 Points carry over**

Activity Points earned during the Group Stage phase do not reset before the Final. Everything you've accumulated since the event started counts toward your Final Rewards ranking. Each phase pays out based on a separate leaderboard snapshot taken at that phase's cutoff — your Group Stage rank and your Final rank are independent snapshots of the same, ever-growing AP total.

#### 8. How Each Pool Is Split

Each phase's pool is shared among the top 1,000 ranked players, paid out in tiers by AP rank. The higher you finish, the more you take. The #1 spot alone takes 20% of the Group Stage pool and roughly a third of the Final pool.

**8.1 Tier table (amount per winner, by phase)**

| **Rank**              | **Winners** | **Group Stage (25,000 USDT + 1,000,000 PP)** | **Final (75,000 USDT + 4,000,000 PP)** |
| --------------------- | ----------- | -------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------- |
| #1                    | 1           | 5,000 USDT + 50,000 PP                       | 25,000 USDT + 200,000 PP               |
| #2                    | 1           | 2,000 USDT + 20,000 PP                       | 10,000 USDT + 100,000 PP               |
| #3                    | 1           | 1,000 USDT + 10,000 PP                       | 3,000 USDT + 50,000 PP                 |
| #4 to #10 (each)      | 7           | 500 USDT + 5,000 PP                          | 1,000 USDT + 25,000 PP                 |
| #11 to #25 (each)     | 15          | 200 USDT + 4,000 PP                          | 500 USDT + 15,000 PP                   |
| #26 to #50 (each)     | 25          | 100 USDT + 3,000 PP                          | 200 USDT + 11,000 PP                   |
| #51 to #100 (each)    | 50          | 50 USDT + 2,000 PP                           | 100 USDT + 7,500 PP                    |
| #101 to #250 (each)   | 150         | 20 USDT + 1,000 PP                           | 50 USDT + 4,000 PP                     |
| #251 to #500 (each)   | 250         | 10 USDT + 1,000 PP                           | 20 USDT + 4,000 PP                     |
| #501 to #750 (each)   | 250         | 500 PP (no USDT)                             | 2,000 PP (no USDT)                     |
| #751 to #1,000 (each) | 250         | 500 PP (no USDT)                             | 2,000 PP (no USDT)                     |

Every column adds up exactly to that phase's pool across all 1,000 paid ranks: 25,000 USDT + 1,000,000 PP for the Group Stage, and 75,000 USDT + 4,000,000 PP for the Final.

#### 9. Payouts

* **Currency.** Pools are paid in USDT and Predict Points.
* **Timing.** Pools pay out after each phase ends, once markets have settled and Activity Points are finalized.
* **Claiming.** Activity Points themselves require no claim step. Only the Group Stage Reward and the Final Reward have a claim step.
* **Resolution.** Market resolution follows UMA Optimistic Oracle timing, the same trusted resolution that powers the rest of Predict.fun.

#### 10. FAQ

**I traded on a Dota 2 market but didn't earn any points. Why?** Activity Points are only earned on the markets visible in the activity hub, in which you've locked in your shares.

**What counts as a valid lock?** You must lock at least 20 shares — bought in one transaction or several — and hold them until the market resolves. If you have fewer than 20 shares available, the Lock button stays disabled.

**Does locking more shares earn more points?** No. 20 shares is a minimum threshold, not a multiplier. Each market awards a fixed number of Activity Points, and each market pays once per user, so locking 200 shares earns the same as locking 20.

**Do I need to claim my Activity Points?** No. Activity Points are calculated and displayed automatically once your locked markets resolve. Only the Group Stage Reward and the Final Reward have a claim step.

**Do my points reset after the Group Stage Reward?** No. The two phases are separate and your points carry over — everything you've accumulated since the event start counts toward your Final Reward ranking. Each phase pays out based on a leaderboard snapshot taken for that phase.

**Do I have to lock every market?** No. Lock only the markets you want to play. Each market qualifies independently, and you can play markets across as many matches and teams as you like.

**Can I sell my shares during a match?** Yes. You only need to be holding the minimum (20 shares) of your locked option at lock-in and again at resolution. What you do in between is up to you.

**What happens if my holding drops below the minimum mid-match?** The market shows a warning that you are not currently eligible. Buy back above the minimum before the market resolves to restore your eligibility. If you are still below the minimum at resolution, that market does not pay.

**How are ties on the leaderboard handled?** There is no tiebreaker. Tied players jointly take the combined rewards of the ranks they span and split them equally.

**When do I get my rewards?** After each phase ends, once markets have settled and points are finalized. Payouts are in USDT and Predict Points, with a claim step for the Group Stage and Final Rewards.

#### 11. Glossary

**Activity Points (AP):** the activity's scoring points. Earned on qualifying, correct market predictions, they determine your rank on the leaderboard and therefore your share of the reward pools.

**Match-level market:** a market that resolves once per match regardless of how many games it takes (e.g. Match Winner, Total Games).

**Per-game market:** a market that resolves separately for each individual game played within a match (e.g. First Blood, Kill Totals).

**Option:** a specific outcome within a market, for example "Team A" in Match Winner or "Over 2.5" in Total Games.

**Lock:** committing your chosen option in a market before the match/game begins, with at least 20 shares locked in. A locked, qualifying, winning option is what earns Activity Points.

**Qualify:** meeting all three requirements on a market: buy and lock 20+ shares before the match/game begins, hold the minimum at resolution, and win.

**Pool:** the prize money Predict.fun funds for a given reward phase (Group Stage or Final), shared by the top 1,000 ranked players.

**Phase:** one of the two reward periods in The Predict International — Group Stage (Aug 13–16) or Final (Aug 20–23) — each paid out from its own leaderboard snapshot.

**Tier:** a band of leaderboard ranks that all receive the same payout amount in a phase's pool.