How Resolution Works on Predict

Learn how Predict resolves markets using UMA's optimistic oracle, from proposal and challenge periods to automated, on-chain settlement.

As of March 2026, all new markets on Predict are served by UMA’s Optimistic Oracle.

The TL;DR? Faster, automated resolutions with less human intervention and more on-chain goodness.

As UMA's favored prediction market partner on BNB Chain, Predict is among the first platforms to integrate UMA's automated resolution infrastructure at this scale.

What Is UMA?

UMA (Universal Market Access) is a decentralized oracle protocol by Risk Labs. It brings real-world data (election results, sports scores, economic figures, and more) onto blockchains without a need for centralized authorities.

Rather than pulling from a single data feed, UMA uses an optimistic oracle model: anyone can submit a resolution proposal — and it’s considered correct unless challenged (the optimistic part). This way, resolutions tend to be much quicker in straightforward cases, and appropriately contested in case of disagreement.

With this infrastructure, UMA powers some of the largest dApps and prediction markets available, including Polymarket.

How the Resolution Process Works

The Proposal

Once a market expires and the outcome is known, anyone can submit a resolution proposal by:

• Selecting the winning outcome

• Posting a bond (collateral that will be forfeited if the proposal is incorrect)

• Submitting it to the UMA Oracle

If the proposal goes undisputed, the proposer recovers their bond plus a reward for honest participation.

The Challenge Period

After a proposal is submitted, a short window opens during which anyone can dispute it.

• In case of no dispute: the proposal is accepted and the market resolves. This is the most common path.

• In case of dispute: a second proposal round begins. If that is also disputed, the question escalates to a full UMA token holder vote.

Dispute and Escalation

In case of dispute, the challenger posts a “counter-bond” of equal size. This triggers either a new proposal round or, if it's the second dispute, a structured debate and vote.

During the debate period, both sides can submit evidence. UMA token holders then vote on the correct outcome, with economic incentives designed to reward accuracy and penalize dishonesty.

The Resolution

Once the challenge period passes without dispute (or once a vote concludes) the market resolves:

• Winning shares become redeemable for $1 each

• Losing shares become worthless

• Trading on the market closes

How Long Does Resolution Take?

In cases where the outcome is undisputed, it takes roughly two hours for the market to resolve. In a dispute, this timeline can extend for several hours to a day (and in case of UMA vote escalation, it can be as long as a week).

With that said, with the economic incentives at play, the vast majority of markets are resolved undisputed.

What This Means for Predict Users

Predict's integration with UMA means resolutions are:

• Automated: no manual intervention required in the standard case

• Fast: most markets settle within hours of the outcome being known

• Trustless: outcomes are verified and settled on-chain

• Disputable: any user can challenge an incorrect proposal, keeping the system honest

This infrastructure also allows Predict to expand its market coverage significantly, and lays the groundwork for future features like user-generated markets.